Independent Fiscal Office Releases Demographic Outlook

Last week, Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office released a new report outlining demographic projections in Pennsylvania, which will have a significant impact on long-term economic, revenue, and other state fiscal trends.

The report analyzes birth, death, and migration rates in accordance with numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and accounts for the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had on those numbers in Pennsylvania. It notes that while the population in Pennsylvania grew slightly from 2015 to 2020, it is projected to decrease slightly in the near term (-0.3 percent) and in the long term (-0.5 percent). Other projected declines are anticipated across the school aged cohort (with an anticipated decline of 4.7 percent in the long-term) and the working-age cohort (which is expected to decline by 2.1 percent in the long-term).

Meanwhile, the over 80 population group is project to grow  by a staggering 20 percent, which  the cohort of people aged 65 to 79 will see a(4.7 percent long-term increase. These findings reveal that Pennsylvania maintains its reputation as a retirement-friendly state, with many older Pennsylvanians choosing to remain here. It also showcases declining birth rates and  “brain drain”  – wherein young people increasingly choose to leave the Commonwealth rather than staying here to work and raise  families.  These trends will continue to pose a challenge for our long-term economic competitiveness unless policies are changed to better attract workers and families to the Commonwealth.

To view the full report, click here.

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